Eskom still seeing red for load shedding – but there are some positive shifts

Power utility Eskom has published its latest system report for the 39th week of the year, with the overall picture still reflecting ‘Code Red’ across the board.

The latest system report shows that the utility is planning for 52 weeks of projected supply shortfalls over 2,000MW (equivalent to 2 stages of load shedding) at minimum.

The system report features a 52-week projection for energy, which is coded based on the expected supply and demand.

Code Green indicates that the group expects adequate generation to meet demand and feed reserves.

Code Yellow projects a small shortfall to meet reserves (under 1,000MW) but adequate supply to meet demand.

Code Orange anticipates a 1,000MW to 2,000MW shortfall, “definitively” failing to feed reserves and possibly demand.

Code Red is when there is a 2,000+ MW shortfall where both reserves and demand won’t be met, the group said.

In its assessment of the year ahead, Eskom provides both a “planned” risk level – based on its baseline assumptions of megawatts that will be unavailable – and a “likely” risk scenario, based on the baseline assumption being exceeded by 1,500 MW.

The assumptions are all based on the last week of available operational data.

This particular assessment is based on an assumption that 16,000MW will be out due to unplanned outages. Including reserves of 2,200MW, Eskom “plans” around 18,200MW being offline due to outages.

In the “likely” scenario, this ramps up to approximately 20,200MW.

However, while this is a broad plan for the utility, it does not reflect what the group expects as an outlook in the summer months ahead.

Specifically, while the system report pegs its planned scenarios on outages (UCLF) between 16,000MW and over 20,000MW, its summer plan has reduced these forecasts to be between 14,500MW and 17,500MW.

In its current target scenarios, Eskom wants to keep unplanned outages below 14,500MW, which should help it keep the maximum level of load shedding under stage 4.

So far, the group has managed to maintain this, with load shedding currently being suspended during the day and only going to stage 2 in the evenings.

This is being achieved with the UCLF below 30% (under ~13,500MW). The government has also talked up positive strides moving forward, with more MW coming online from Kusile in the coming months, as well as other energy sources adding capacity to the grid.

Ostensibly, if Eskom is able to maintain this level of performance, its system reports will start to reflect lower planned UCLF levels, and over time, the sea of red in its reports could change to more orange, yellow or even green.

Positive turn

According to the latest Utility Power Statistics compiled by independent energy analyst Pieter Jordaan, another factor is at play, helping to ease the power constraints.

Jordaan noted that Q3 of 2023 is currently experiencing some of the lowest demand seen in five years, which he attributed to the growth in alternative energy sources by households and businesses – particularly solar.

While the power supply gap is still evident – hence the continued need for load shedding – demand is definitely tracking lower than the same time in previous years.

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