South Africa’s new political minefield
The South African government is disjointed in its messaging on the conflict between Israel and the militant group Hamas, which could have dire consequences back home.
Over the weekend, Hamas launched an unprecedented offensive in Israeli territory during the religious holiday of Simchat Tora, which resulted in over 1,000 deaths and many taken hostage. Israel has responded by decimating large parts of Gaza through bombings.
Although South Africa’s call for peace mirrors many other nations, there is mixed messaging coming from various parts of the government.
“The DA condemns Hamas’ unprovoked attack on Israeli territory today during the religious holiday of Simchat Torah,” MP Emma Powell said.
“The DA urgently calls on the Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) to unequivocally condemn this unprovoked attack and join the international community in their calls for an immediate end to this rapidly escalating violence.”
Although DIRCO called for a ceasefire, their messaging suggests that the attack was not unprovoked.
“The new conflagration has arisen from the continued illegal occupation of Palestine land, continued settlement expansion, desecration of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and Christian holy sites, and ongoing oppression of the Palestinian people,” the department said.
Due to several similarities with apartheid, the ANC-led government has steadfastly supported Palestine since the dawn of democracy.
However, the USA and other Western Nations are generally on the side of Israel. Not only does the USA have a large Jewish population, many of the nation’s Evangelical Christians support Israel.
Mixed messaging
Amidst the chaos of the war, National Assembly Speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula said that G20 nations should not take sides but rather intervene to stop the conflict.
Speaking at a pre-summit meeting at the Parliamentary Speakers’ Summit (P20) in India, Mapisa-Nqakula said that taking sides would only intensify the conflict and lead to further deaths of innocent people, reiterating the commitment to a two-state solution.
“There is no winner in the war as we all suffer losses and casualties. This conflict has sadly resulted in the loss of innocent lives from both sides, in particular women and children,” she said.
She noted that the 50-year-long conflict should be understood in its historical context, focusing on saving lives.
“We note with deep sadness and pain the escalation of the conflict that is going on in that part of the world” has caused, she said.
However, neutrality in complex geo-political conflicts is not the government’s forte, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine a prime example.
Although DIRCO initially criticised Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it changed its tune when senior political leaders intervened.
South Africa was then accused of being on Russia’s side, with US Ambassador Reuben Brigety alleging that South Africa loaded weapons onto the Russian Lady R ship last year.
South African pain
Although US-South African relations have improved after an independent investigation into the Lady R fiasco found nothing untoward, the rand is at risk if the government doesn’t play its cards correctly in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
“While South Africa is geographically far removed from the Israel/Gaza conflict, South Africa is not deemed to have shown complete neutrality towards the Russian/Ukraine war, and concerns exist that this may be repeated, which would undermine the rand further,” Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop said.
Additionally, the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) warned that the rand’s 3% decrease last week versus the US dollar intensified concerns about the deteriorating inflation outlook.
“With this in mind, there is a rising probability that the SA Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will increase the repo rate by another 25bps (to 8.50%, prime rate to 12%) at its next meeting on 23 November,” the BER said.
“This view is also informed by the fact that there were already two (out of five) votes for a 25 basis points increase at the July and September MPC meetings.
There are also global concerns over the oil price, which could lead to further inflation and fuel pump pain.
“The renewed and severe escalation in the long-running feud between Israel and Hamas has the potential to turn into a regional Middle East conflict that potentially involves major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Iran,” the BER added.
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