Red flags for South Africa’s GDP

South Africa is facing major headwinds, with data on the economy’s performance in Q3 2023 reflecting this.

BankservAfrica Economic Transactions Index (BETI) highlighted another month of weaker economic activity, worsening fears over the country’s economic growth in the quarter.

“The BETI slipped marginally to an index level of 133.6 in September compared to the revised 133.9 in August,” said Shergeran Naidoo, BankservAfrica’s Head of Stakeholder Engagements.

“On an annual basis, the BETI increased by 2%.”

However, on a quarterly basis, the BETI is 2% lower, reflecting the economy’s lost momentum in Q3 following a 0.6% increase in GDP in Q2.

This is corroborated by the BETI declining for the past three consecutive months.

“As a valuable early indicator of economic activity, the BETI data reflects the ongoing ‘muddle-along’ narrative playing out in the South African economy,” said Independent Economist Elize Kruger.

Load shedding, water supply constraints and a logistics sector that is struggling following a significant decline in rail services and slow ports are some of the issues facing the country.

The rand exchange rate is also against the wall, affecting import prices, whilst fuel price hikes in the last three months could further strain consumer inflation in the near term.

“As a consequence, interest rates are forecast to remain at current elevated levels for some months to come, with no near-term reprieve expected,” said Kruger.

Overall, the BETI signals muted economic growth performance in Q3, which will be weaker than Q2 with a likelihood of negative quarterly growth.

The BETI is not the only piece of data to highlight the economy’s major struggles in Q3 and the stress that it causes on households.

Household credit growth eased to 5.8% in August – the lowest level since January 2022, as all components, except credit card usage, dropped.

Nedbank said that household credit was harshly affected by more vulnerable household finances, higher interest rates, fragile consumer confidence and prudent lenders.

In addition, the S&P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 49.9 in September – now slightly below the neutral 50-level mark.

The ABSA PMI also dropped from 49.7 in August to 45.4 in September, highlighting the current strain on the manufacturing sector.

Domestic vehicle sales may have been more resilient in the first half of the year. However, this retreated in September as dropping business confidence and smaller disposable income impacted buyers.

However, the standardised nominal value of transactions cleared through BankservAfrica did increase from R1.207 trillion in August to R1.248 trillion in September 2023, even if the number of transactions dropped from 152.6 million to 152.2 million.

That said, there was a year-on-year 8.8% drop in the average value of transition cleared through BankservAfrica, declining from R8565 in September 2022 to R7,811 in October, underscoring the change to digital, instant payments.

“A growing number of indicators confirm that the economy remains lacklustre, unable to gain much-needed momentum,” said Kruger.

“It is increasingly clear that the cumulative impact of many challenges that have been playing out in the South African economy over the past 18 months is now at its harshest, at a time when confidence levels are still under severe pressure and with no clear end in sight for the ongoing challenges.”

Read: Alarm bells for one of South Africa’s largest employers